Here are four trends to watch in the 2025-26 school year, according to a K-12 Dive article.
Tight budgets meet enrollment declines
As the new school year begins, fall enrollment numbers will be crucial for district budgets, says Marguerite Roza, a research professor and director of Georgetown University’s Edunomics Lab.
Due to federal COVID-19 emergency relief funds, many districts appeared to ignore the realities of their declining enrollment, she says. When relief funding dissipates and budgets tighten, districts need to keep a very close eye on their fall enrollment: Even if it’s just 1% lower or higher than forecasted, that will be “super important” for schools’ bottom lines, Roza says.
Districts should look for declines in kindergarten or at secondary grade levels, Roza says. If a district has fewer kindergarteners but strong high school enrollment, for instance, then it has a birthrate problem, she says. But if it’s an issue across the board, it may be that people are moving out of the area.
Growing school choice policies may also have an impact on enrollment down the line, Roza says.
Some districts with significant and ongoing enrollment drops will have to make tough decisions this school year about the future of their schools. District leaders in Atlanta, Austin and St. Louis public schools are all currently considering whether they should close or consolidate school buildings due to budget challenges and enrollment declines.
Federal policy changes
Schools are challenged by shifts in federal policies. One example: federal officials have targeted education agencies in Maine, California, Minnesota and major districts in Northern Virginia for what it says are violations of Title IX applying to women’s and girls’ sports teams.
Civil rights organizations, teacher organizations and some school districts have challenged federal policies in court, which will take time to be resolved.
Technology & relationships drive special ed gains
Advances in technology, including artificial intelligence tools, are easing paperwork burdens for special educators. Improvements in augmentative and alternative communication and other technologies strengthen personalized learning for students with disabilities. And evidence-based practices such as universal design for learning and positive behavioral interventions and supports help schools meet individual student needs.
Relevant professional development on tech tools, however, is only one part of helping a student succeed, according to a recent post on AASA, the School Superintendents Association’s website.
″To truly move the work forward, we need to set clear district goals in partnership with special education leaders,” says Kelly Rudyk, director of pupil personnel services for New York’s North Salem Central School District. “These goals should reflect instructional priorities, support the meaningful use of technology and improve outcomes for students with disabilities.”
Relationships between administrators and special educators, and between schools and families, are also essential, Rudyk says.
AI spreads its footprint
AASA, the School Superintendents Association, is concerned with the Education Department’s push for AI tools in schools. There’s little research available on the impacts AI technology has on student outcomes, particularly with increasingly popular AI tutoring tools
AASA wants a greater focus on the educator workforce within AI initiatives. AI cannot be a “substitute,” the association said, for “the human relationships and professional expertise at the heart of student learning.”
AASA warned against “framing AI as a silver bullet,” and that any “thoughtful national strategy must include clear guardrails, sustainable funding that does not come at the expense of other high-priority federal programs, and ongoing evaluation of what works in practice.”
As school leaders approach the fourth academic year since ChatGPT launched, researchers recommend that districts develop their own acceptable AI use policies if they haven’t already.
Meanwhile, 30 states have issued their own AI guidance for schools as of June, according to TeachAI, a national coalition focused on AI in education.
K-12 Dive
